A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that divided the nation and caused chaos, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the political, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly split population where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Many are for or against the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in universities but very few government figures or activists are willing to participate with even the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer endorses unification or the status quo. Both composes two essays that seek objectivity in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and societal data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions cover identity markers, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they favour unity but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid perspectives, he said. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will in the end not succeed but each side has has valuable insights to acquire from the alternative positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should join the debate, said the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
